peppereffect Click-Defence Asset

LTV:CAC and Organic Erosion Calculator

Your ratio, your CAC payback, and the line item most models leave out: what the organic demand you already lost would cost to buy back. Category values are measured across 3,663 live-confirmed B2B domains, 23 September 2026.

1. Your unit economics

Use gross-margin LTV and fully loaded CAC. Blended numbers flatter the ratio. The values loaded here are the worked example from the article, chosen to start at a $10,000 CAC and a 4.0:1 ratio. They are an illustration, not a benchmark.

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Gross-margin LTV

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Fully loaded CAC

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LTV:CAC

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CAC payback (months)

2. Your organic erosion

Peak monthly organic sessions is the highest month in your analytics history, not last year's average. Pick the category closest to what you sell. The sessions loaded here are the dataset medians. Multiplying them gives a larger figure than the median per-domain loss of $8,924, because medians do not multiply; both numbers are correct and they answer different questions.

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Sessions lost per month

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Value per visit used

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Replacement cost per month

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Replacement cost per year

3. The ratio after the erosion

This assumes you replace the lost demand with paid, at the CPC of the keywords you used to rank for. That is a ceiling, not a forecast. It is also the number nobody puts in the model.

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Adjusted CAC

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Adjusted LTV:CAC

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Adjusted payback (months)

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CAC increase

Enter your numbers.Bands below follow David Skok's guidelines, the source the 3:1 rule actually comes from.

Measured value per organic visit and median monthly loss, by category

3,663 live-confirmed B2B domains, all 17 categories shown. Medians are medians of per-domain values, never medians multiplied together.

CategoryDomainsMedian value per visitMedian lost value per monthMedian decline from peak

Source: peppereffect Share-of-Model scan, aggregation run 23 September 2026. Aggregates only, no company names, no domains. The sample is drawn from companies that showed a decline signal, so it overstates decline relative to the whole B2B market.

Method, in full

Every formula, so you can check the arithmetic or run it without this page.

OutputFormula
Gross-margin LTVACV x gross margin / annual gross revenue churn
Fully loaded CACannual sales and marketing spend / new customers per year
CAC payback (months)CAC / (ACV x gross margin / 12)
Sessions lost per monthpeak monthly organic sessions - current monthly organic sessions
Value per visityour own figure, or your category's measured median from the table above
Replacement cost per yearsessions lost per month x value per visit x 12
Adjusted CACCAC + (replacement cost per year / new customers per year)

Value per visit in the dataset is a domain's live estimated organic traffic value per month divided by its current monthly organic sessions, which makes it a replacement-cost proxy derived from keyword CPC. It is not what anyone actually paid, and paid clicks are not interchangeable with organic ones. Nothing you type here is transmitted, stored or logged. Built by peppereffect.